Technology Assessment and Forecasting; Developing a Framework for Understanding What Comes Next
Technology forecasting is the forecasting of future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques. Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not been observed yet. Thus in short, technology forecasting is the prediction of future technologies. This ties in very well with last week’s seminar which theme revolved around “Future Technologies”.
“Tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it today” – African Proverb
The above quote fits exactly the theme for this lesson – we have to prepare for future technologies. And how do we do that? Through technology forecasting! Globalization has caused the world to change at a rate, one would not have imagined possible in the past. Thus, it is vital that we are always prepared and armed to face the challenges of tomorrow because uncertainty causes insecurity. By being prepared, we are able to control the fate of tomorrow because it is all in our hands. Hence, by technology forecasting, we would be able to envisage the possibilities of tomorrow as well as to come up with solutions to solve the prevailing problems today.
A useful way of carrying out technology forecasting would be through the use of a technology roadmap which is a plan that matches short-term and long-term goals with specific technology solutions to help meet those goals. This plan applies to both new products/processes and emerging technologies. I find this method useful given today’s context because the problems that we will face in the future are prevalent. This includes overcrowding in certain countries due to the increasing population, increase in energy consumption, global warming etc. Since the stage is already there, what is left is to create solutions to solve this problem which can be done through a technology roadmap. We can employ a group of experts to study the particular problem and then come up with a technology which will solve this problem through a systematic approach.
Overall, I found this to be a really interesting and thought provoking session.
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