Technology Assessment and Forecasting; Developing a Framework for Understanding What Comes Next
Technology forecasting is the forecasting of future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques. Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not been observed yet. Thus in short, technology forecasting is the prediction of future technologies. This ties in very well with last week’s seminar which theme revolved around “Future Technologies”.
“Tomorrow belongs to the people who prepare for it today” – African Proverb
The above quote fits exactly the theme for this lesson – we have to prepare for future technologies. And how do we do that? Through technology forecasting! Globalization has caused the world to change at a rate, one would not have imagined possible in the past. Thus, it is vital that we are always prepared and armed to face the challenges of tomorrow because uncertainty causes insecurity. By being prepared, we are able to control the fate of tomorrow because it is all in our hands. Hence, by technology forecasting, we would be able to envisage the possibilities of tomorrow as well as to come up with solutions to solve the prevailing problems today.
A useful way of carrying out technology forecasting would be through the use of a technology roadmap which is a plan that matches short-term and long-term goals with specific technology solutions to help meet those goals. This plan applies to both new products/processes and emerging technologies. I find this method useful given today’s context because the problems that we will face in the future are prevalent. This includes overcrowding in certain countries due to the increasing population, increase in energy consumption, global warming etc. Since the stage is already there, what is left is to create solutions to solve this problem which can be done through a technology roadmap. We can employ a group of experts to study the particular problem and then come up with a technology which will solve this problem through a systematic approach.
Overall, I found this to be a really interesting and thought provoking session.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Seminar 10, 18/10/10
Emerging and Future Technologies
This week’s lesson was a pretty intriguing one because it covered emerging and future technologies, a topic I believe captivated the class’s attention. No matter what, I’m sure we are interested in how these technologies are going to impact and change our lives in the future. After all, technology has already changed the way we lived since we were born. Remember how used to communicate with our friends (during primary school) with our home phones? Now, this seldom takes place because it has been replaced by other avenues of communication such as MSN, facebook and text messages. Technology has indeed brought immense convenience and change to our lives and I believe it will continue to do so in the future.
“In terms of the development and application of new and emerging technologies, we are limited only by our imagination – and all too often, the lack thereof”.
- Prof Gurinder Shahi
This was the quote of the week which I found really apt because I feel that all great ideas come with the ability to imagine. Without imagination, we wouldn’t be able to even phantom about how the product is going to be like and hence, innovations would never occur. Therefore, it is imperative that we do not restrict our imagination. Instead, we should always be open to new ideas and technologies and embrace it. In the past when the idea of In Vitro Fertilization (IVF) was first introduced, many were skeptical about it, having concerns over ethical issues and potential complications which might arise. However, fast forward till today, IVF is widely accepted by several and can be said to be a life-saver for couples who want a baby but are unable to have one. Hence, it is evident that we should not be cynical to the possibilities of new technologies which might sound far-fetched to us now. People do not embrace new technologies immediately because they cannot foresee and imagine the probability of using it. However, if they take a step back and keep an open mind while using the technology, I believe they will be able to see it in a different light. In a nutshell, nothing is impossible. As long as you can think of it, it can happen.
Augmented reality was one of the technologies brought up in class which I found really fascinating. It is a technology that is able to bring virtual computer generated images into reality. This concept can be applicable to several fields.
I also found the idea that an innovation that was technologically driven could have the capability to alter the needs and perceptions of the market. For example, when mobile phones were first invented, it was not a technology that was commonly used by the masses. This was due to the fact that people did not see the need to own a mobile phone, judging by the availability of public phones in almost all cities. However, fast forward to the 21st century, mobile phones are a necessity to all, to such an extent that this gadget has evolved rapidly in a matter of years.
A few key takeaways from the session would be the confluence of the 4 “Smarts”: smart people, smart ideas, smart money and smart alliances & partnerships, as a driver for the development of emerging and future technologies. Some issues for further discussion would be the question as to whether future technologies would be a plaything for the rich. Whenever a new invention appears, the cost would be generally expensive. As such, only the rich could afford the luxury of owning these new ‘items’. Would this then exacerbate the divide between the rich and the poor ? I would personally rate the session a 8 out of 10.
This week’s lesson was a pretty intriguing one because it covered emerging and future technologies, a topic I believe captivated the class’s attention. No matter what, I’m sure we are interested in how these technologies are going to impact and change our lives in the future. After all, technology has already changed the way we lived since we were born. Remember how used to communicate with our friends (during primary school) with our home phones? Now, this seldom takes place because it has been replaced by other avenues of communication such as MSN, facebook and text messages. Technology has indeed brought immense convenience and change to our lives and I believe it will continue to do so in the future.
“In terms of the development and application of new and emerging technologies, we are limited only by our imagination – and all too often, the lack thereof”.
- Prof Gurinder Shahi
This was the quote of the week which I found really apt because I feel that all great ideas come with the ability to imagine. Without imagination, we wouldn’t be able to even phantom about how the product is going to be like and hence, innovations would never occur. Therefore, it is imperative that we do not restrict our imagination. Instead, we should always be open to new ideas and technologies and embrace it. In the past when the idea of In Vitro Fertilization (IVF) was first introduced, many were skeptical about it, having concerns over ethical issues and potential complications which might arise. However, fast forward till today, IVF is widely accepted by several and can be said to be a life-saver for couples who want a baby but are unable to have one. Hence, it is evident that we should not be cynical to the possibilities of new technologies which might sound far-fetched to us now. People do not embrace new technologies immediately because they cannot foresee and imagine the probability of using it. However, if they take a step back and keep an open mind while using the technology, I believe they will be able to see it in a different light. In a nutshell, nothing is impossible. As long as you can think of it, it can happen.
Augmented reality was one of the technologies brought up in class which I found really fascinating. It is a technology that is able to bring virtual computer generated images into reality. This concept can be applicable to several fields.
I also found the idea that an innovation that was technologically driven could have the capability to alter the needs and perceptions of the market. For example, when mobile phones were first invented, it was not a technology that was commonly used by the masses. This was due to the fact that people did not see the need to own a mobile phone, judging by the availability of public phones in almost all cities. However, fast forward to the 21st century, mobile phones are a necessity to all, to such an extent that this gadget has evolved rapidly in a matter of years.
A few key takeaways from the session would be the confluence of the 4 “Smarts”: smart people, smart ideas, smart money and smart alliances & partnerships, as a driver for the development of emerging and future technologies. Some issues for further discussion would be the question as to whether future technologies would be a plaything for the rich. Whenever a new invention appears, the cost would be generally expensive. As such, only the rich could afford the luxury of owning these new ‘items’. Would this then exacerbate the divide between the rich and the poor ? I would personally rate the session a 8 out of 10.
Saturday, October 16, 2010
Seminar 9, 11/10/2010
Energy and World Change: Past, Present and Future
Given the increasing consumption of energy today, it is imperative that we have enough sustainable energy for future generations. If not, what are they going to be living on? The use of technology has evolved in tandem with technology. For instance, in the past, our forefathers created heat energy through rubbing the stones together and after which, they would use the energy to cook their meat. Today, we make use of gas stoves to generate heat and electrical energy to cook our meals. Energy has not evolved. But the way we use it has changed. Just like any other inventions in technology, the use of technology has increased the convenience for us to use energy. With the easy availability of energy, it is inevitable that we end up consuming more than we are supposed to. After all, Men are selfish creatures.
The advancements in technology has facilitated the invention of an improved stove which produces less carbon emissions than a coal stove. This is actually an invention by the Beijing Shenzhou Daxu Biomass Energy Technology Company Limited which achieves a high efficiency (over 40%) and low emissions. Using this instead of a coal stove reduces the cost of cooking and heating by over 50%, and achieves a reduction of over 8 tonnes of carbon dioxide emission per year. As such, it is evident that technological improvements can enable us to use energy more efficiently so that there is less wastage and hence more energy for the future generations. Also, the cost of this power stove is relatively low and thus most villagers will be able to benefit from it.
The invention above was the product of Research and Development (R&D). Thus, I feel that governments should invest more money into the R&D for renewable resources of energy so that more disruptive innovations can be discovered so that we can use energy more efficiently from now on.
Overall, I rate the session 8/10.
Given the increasing consumption of energy today, it is imperative that we have enough sustainable energy for future generations. If not, what are they going to be living on? The use of technology has evolved in tandem with technology. For instance, in the past, our forefathers created heat energy through rubbing the stones together and after which, they would use the energy to cook their meat. Today, we make use of gas stoves to generate heat and electrical energy to cook our meals. Energy has not evolved. But the way we use it has changed. Just like any other inventions in technology, the use of technology has increased the convenience for us to use energy. With the easy availability of energy, it is inevitable that we end up consuming more than we are supposed to. After all, Men are selfish creatures.
The advancements in technology has facilitated the invention of an improved stove which produces less carbon emissions than a coal stove. This is actually an invention by the Beijing Shenzhou Daxu Biomass Energy Technology Company Limited which achieves a high efficiency (over 40%) and low emissions. Using this instead of a coal stove reduces the cost of cooking and heating by over 50%, and achieves a reduction of over 8 tonnes of carbon dioxide emission per year. As such, it is evident that technological improvements can enable us to use energy more efficiently so that there is less wastage and hence more energy for the future generations. Also, the cost of this power stove is relatively low and thus most villagers will be able to benefit from it.
The invention above was the product of Research and Development (R&D). Thus, I feel that governments should invest more money into the R&D for renewable resources of energy so that more disruptive innovations can be discovered so that we can use energy more efficiently from now on.
Overall, I rate the session 8/10.
Sunday, October 3, 2010
Seminar 7, 26/09/2010
The BioBusiness Revolution 2: Agriculture and the Environment: Past, Present, Future
As reiterated in class, BioBusiness is the commercial activity based on the understanding of life sciences and life science processes. BioBusiness employs some 40% of the world’s labour force and constitutes to about 25% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). From the figures, it is evident that BioBusiness is a drive of the economy, hence it is imperative for us to understand it and be part of this revolution in order to benefit from it.
This week’s session concentrated more on the food aspect of technology. Genetically modified (GM) food, in-vitro meat, Plumpy’Nut, genetically engineered (GE) papaya etc. These are some of the examples of food that technology has created. Several issues about GM food were raised. One of which included the labeling of GM food. The United States (US) is one of the countries that strongly opposes to labeling of GM food. As such, only 40% of people in the U.S. know that some of the foods they are buying and eating are genetically modified, according to a new survey conducted by the International Food Information Council (IFIC). Additionally nearly 1 out of 4 people incorrectly believes that such foods are not being sold in the US. I feel that this is very unfair to the consumers in the US because they have a right to know if the food they are consuming is genetically modified. Furthermore, some people might have certain food allergies and unlabelled GM food might cause them to consume this unknowingly, and thus may result in undesirable consequences.
Putting aside the issue of GM food labels, I think that GM food can be the answer to food security. In the least developing countries (LDCs), malnutrition is a common problem because the people there either do not have enough food or they rely on a single crop such as rice for the main staple of their diet. Rice does not contain the adequate amounts of nutrients necessary to prevent malnutrition. However, if rice could be genetically engineered to contain additional vitamins and minerals, then the problem of malnutrition can be solved because the people can acquire the essential nutrients from this genetically engineered rice. This concept was also applied which led to the innovation of Plumpy’Nut, a ready to-use therapeutic food (RUFT) that helped to save the lives of many malnourished children in Africa. Each packet of Plumpy’Nut contains about 500 kilocalories and all the essential nutrients a growing child needs. This invention is indeed a life-saver as the parent does not need to prepare anything. All she needs to do is to give the child a packet of Plumpy’Nut and there, he is on his way to weight gain! Henceforth, GM food can be the solution to food security.
Another interesting invention brought up during this session was in-vitro meat, whereby the possibility of rearing the entire animal to obtain its meat, we can grow the parts we want. Sounds interesting? Imagine eating your favorite part of the chickens only (like wings, thigh) without having to care about the other parts. Although the idea of eating just my favourite parts only is enticing , I cannot envisage the idea of eating meat that is being grown artificially at the labs. Furthermore, in-vitro meat is too expensive for the average consumer – it costs USD $1 million per kilogram. Thus, I feel that it is impossible for us to accept the idea of lab meat now. Perhaps in the coming years, eating in-vitro meat might become a possibility.
Overall, I rate the session 8/10 because the presentations were really an eye-opener to the things that have been made possible via technology. Now, I can't fathom a world without technology would be like.
As reiterated in class, BioBusiness is the commercial activity based on the understanding of life sciences and life science processes. BioBusiness employs some 40% of the world’s labour force and constitutes to about 25% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). From the figures, it is evident that BioBusiness is a drive of the economy, hence it is imperative for us to understand it and be part of this revolution in order to benefit from it.
This week’s session concentrated more on the food aspect of technology. Genetically modified (GM) food, in-vitro meat, Plumpy’Nut, genetically engineered (GE) papaya etc. These are some of the examples of food that technology has created. Several issues about GM food were raised. One of which included the labeling of GM food. The United States (US) is one of the countries that strongly opposes to labeling of GM food. As such, only 40% of people in the U.S. know that some of the foods they are buying and eating are genetically modified, according to a new survey conducted by the International Food Information Council (IFIC). Additionally nearly 1 out of 4 people incorrectly believes that such foods are not being sold in the US. I feel that this is very unfair to the consumers in the US because they have a right to know if the food they are consuming is genetically modified. Furthermore, some people might have certain food allergies and unlabelled GM food might cause them to consume this unknowingly, and thus may result in undesirable consequences.
Putting aside the issue of GM food labels, I think that GM food can be the answer to food security. In the least developing countries (LDCs), malnutrition is a common problem because the people there either do not have enough food or they rely on a single crop such as rice for the main staple of their diet. Rice does not contain the adequate amounts of nutrients necessary to prevent malnutrition. However, if rice could be genetically engineered to contain additional vitamins and minerals, then the problem of malnutrition can be solved because the people can acquire the essential nutrients from this genetically engineered rice. This concept was also applied which led to the innovation of Plumpy’Nut, a ready to-use therapeutic food (RUFT) that helped to save the lives of many malnourished children in Africa. Each packet of Plumpy’Nut contains about 500 kilocalories and all the essential nutrients a growing child needs. This invention is indeed a life-saver as the parent does not need to prepare anything. All she needs to do is to give the child a packet of Plumpy’Nut and there, he is on his way to weight gain! Henceforth, GM food can be the solution to food security.
Another interesting invention brought up during this session was in-vitro meat, whereby the possibility of rearing the entire animal to obtain its meat, we can grow the parts we want. Sounds interesting? Imagine eating your favorite part of the chickens only (like wings, thigh) without having to care about the other parts. Although the idea of eating just my favourite parts only is enticing , I cannot envisage the idea of eating meat that is being grown artificially at the labs. Furthermore, in-vitro meat is too expensive for the average consumer – it costs USD $1 million per kilogram. Thus, I feel that it is impossible for us to accept the idea of lab meat now. Perhaps in the coming years, eating in-vitro meat might become a possibility.
Overall, I rate the session 8/10 because the presentations were really an eye-opener to the things that have been made possible via technology. Now, I can't fathom a world without technology would be like.
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